CARB的Daniel Sperling博士在2月11日SAE的技术研讨会上谈道，能否过渡到电动汽车其实还“不确定”。(Lindsay Brooke)

于2月11日举办的2014年SAE混合动力及电动车技术研讨会上，一位美国最具权威的空气质量监管组织的成员告诉与会人员，美国汽车燃油经济性法规要求到2025年前达到平均54.5英里每加仑（mpg），这一点已经不足以促成零排放电动汽车（包括电池电动车和燃料电池车）的大规模投资。

加州空气资源委员会（CARB）成员Daniel Sperling博士为这期三天的技术研讨会致了开幕辞，同时他也谈道：“我在加州的立法中听到越来越多关于碳税的内容。”他指出，插电式及混合动力车的发展的首要原因已经从过去“石油终结”威胁论，转变成气候变化问题。这一转变不论对于政策制定者，还是工程师都面临着更大的挑战。

Sperling博士还指出：“目前大量的化石燃料都以正常合理的成本开采。”因此消费者对电动汽车感兴趣无非是想要酷一把，而另一方面则是整个产业都把重心放在传统的解决方案上，比如大量应用轻质材料（例如福特2015款F-150使用高比例铝合金），加上先进的燃烧系统、新型变速箱以及更好的空气动力学应用等。这些都大大提高了车辆的燃油经济性，而且成本又明显比零排放汽车（ZEV）低。

大多数的专家都认为，除全尺寸卡车外，其他车型达到54.5 mpg 的要求不会太难。

根据Sperling博士引用的加州大学戴维斯分校给出的分析结果可知，由于电池、牵引电机、动力控制以及充电系统花费相当高，预估为此需要投入1,500亿美元,才能使其在2025年时与传统内燃机汽车的成本支出大致相等。因此预计要到2050年，当插电式电动车的生产规模和系统创新成为现实时，这两种车型的成本才有可能大致趋同。

不过，Sperling博士确定的是，全美最大的汽车市场——加利福尼亚将不会放松所谓的“ZEV政策”，这一政策要求到2025年，加州出售的车辆中15%必须是电池驱动的电动车或者氢燃料电池车。另有八个州也在效仿加州的ZEV规定，这些州的新车销量将近占全美的三分之一。Sperling博士预测，ZEV政策将会在2018年初进行的CAFE（公司平均燃油经济性）政策中期审核中持续有效。

加州空气资源委员会（CARB）中有12个成员由加州州长指派，人们普遍认为这一组织是全球最权威的汽车排放监管组织。Sperling博士是加州大学戴维斯分校交通研究所主任，也是土木工程与环境科学政策教授。他于2009年出版过一本书，书名为《20亿辆车》。

Sperling博士承认“采取激进的新法规”又不让新法规限制客户对产品的需求“是危险的”。他说为了促进电动汽车市场的成长，销售范围要从“富有的早期购买者”不断扩大，同时这些法规也需要被运用于二手车市上，这一点让在座近220位工程师中的一部分感到惊讶。他还指出，公司和住宅建筑必须安装充电站。

Sperling博士列出了加快汽车电动化的几种中短期解决方案，比如加大“feebate”政策*的力度，通过二氧化碳总量管制与排放交易来资助扩大电动汽车购置优惠政策。

从更长期的角度看，2008年实施的加州参议院375法案，其目标就是通过减少人均车辆行驶里程（VMT）来减少乘用车的温室气体排放量。这一政策的基础是以下三大策略：提高驾驶与停车成本的定价政策；投资单人驾驶的替代方案，例如鼓励拼车、骑自行车或者步行；增加有公共交通运输服务地区的住宅与商业建筑开发的密度。

但375法案也并非没有争议。研究显示，虽然1990年开始加州就花费数十亿元发展公共交通，但是使用公共交通系统的人数仍然少得让人失望。加州1990年到2008年间，使用公共交通工具上下班的人数总比例仅从5%上升到5.5%。超过76%的上班族，即使家或者公司旁边就有公共交通站，但仍然会独自开车去上班。

作者：Lindsay Brooke

*Feebate这个英文单词在内地尚无准确的翻译，是由fee（收费）和rebate（返还）构成。通俗地说，就是有些汽车用户因高污染将被额外征税，而增加的收入并不是归政府自由支配，而是返还给环保汽车的用户。某种程度上，这种做法是非常经典的“取之于民、用之于民”。

The transition to electrified vehicles is proving to be "precarious," Dr. Daniel Sperling of the CARB told the SAE symposium audience February 11. (Lindsay Brooke)

U.S. vehicle fuel economy rules that mandate a 54.5-mpg fleet average by 2025 are insufficient to stimulate major investments in zero-emission electrified vehicles, including battery electrics and those powered by fuel cells, a member of America’s most powerful air-quality regulatory group told the 2014 SAEHybrid & EV Symposium audience on February 11.

“I’m starting to hear more and more talk about carbon taxes in the California legislature,” noted Dr. Daniel Sperling, a member of the California Air Resources Board (CARB) who kicked off the three-day SAE event in La Jolla, CA. He said the primary rationale for plug-in and hybrid vehicle development has shifted from the “end of oil” threat to one hinged on climate change, and that shift presents a greater challenge for policymakers and engineers alike.

“Vast quantities of fossil fuels are now being extracted at reasonable cost,” Dr. Sperling noted, prompting consumer interest in EVs to cool while the industry focuses on conventional solutions, such as high-volume adoption of lightweight materials (i.e. Ford’s aluminum-intensive 2015 F-150) plus advanced combustion systems, new transmissions, and improved aerodynamics. These alternatives are significantly raising vehicle fuel efficiency, he said, while typically less costly than those related to zero-emission vehicles (ZEV).

And with the possible exception of full-size trucks, meeting the 54.5-mpg fleet target will not be an overly difficult task, most experts believe.

Because of the comparatively high cost of batteries, traction motors, power control, and charging systems, it would take an estimated outlay of $150 billion to achieve rough cost parity with conventional ICE vehicles by 2025, according to a University of California-Davis analysis cited by Dr. Sperling. The cost of both types won’t likely converge until 2050, he said, when production scale and systems innovations for plug-ins are realized.

Nonetheless, he is certain that California, the nation’s largest vehicle market, will not back down from its so-called “ZEV mandate” requiring 15% of the vehicles sold there by 2025 to have battery electric or hydrogen fuel-cell powertrains. Eight other states are following California’s ZEV rule, representing in total nearly one-third of all U.S. new-vehicle sales. Dr. Sperling predicted that the ZEV mandate will be sustained through the EPA’s mid-term review of CAFE policy, scheduled for early 2018.

CARB, whose 12 members are appointed by California’s governor, is widely considered to be the world’s most powerful group regulating vehicle emissions. Dr. Sperling is Director of the Institute of Transportation Studies, and professor of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science and Policy at UC-Davis. He is author of the 2009 book, Two Billion Cars.

He admitted a “danger in adopting aggressive new regulations" without consumer demand for the products being shaped by those laws. He surprised some among the nearly 220 engineers in the SAE audience when he asserted that in order to grow the electrified-vehicle market, sales must expand beyond “the rich early adopters” and also migrate into the used-car market. Charging stations will have to be implemented at workplaces and apartment complexes, he said.

Short-to-midterm solutions for accelerating vehicle electrification listed by Dr. Sperling include increased use of “feebate” policies, including expanding vehicle purchase incentives financed through cap-and-trade revenues.

Longer term, California Senate Bill (SB) 375, adopted in 2008, is aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions from passenger vehicles by reducing per capita vehicle miles traveled (VMT). This policy is based on three strategies: Pricing policies that raise the cost of driving and parking; investments in alternatives to solo driving such as carpooling, bicycling, and walking; and higher-density housing and business development in areas served by transit.

SB 375 is not without controversy. Studies show that ridership trends for California’s mass-transit systems have been disappointing, relative to the billions invested in the sector since 1990. The state’s overall share of commuters using transit grew from 5% percent to 5.5% between 1990 and 2008. More than 76% of all commuters still drive alone to work even if they live or work near a transit station.