目前，尽管一些商用车队和车主仍对自动驾驶，特别是重型卡车的自动驾驶持怀疑态度，但事实上，多数实现重型卡车自动驾驶的技术现已成熟。有人估计，这些技术将在2025年前做好商业应用的准备，甚至可能更早。

的确，现在一些非公路自动设备已经开始发挥作用了。事实上，早在上世纪90年代就出现了一些非公路自动操作设备，特别是在采矿和农业领域。举个例子，自动和半自动农用机械现在非常常见，这些设备可以大幅提高收割效率，而且装卸也更加轻松、快速。此外，GPS技术在农业领域的应用也非常广泛，可用于完成播种位置识别与确认、农药控制等多种任务。

对于自动技术在公路中的应用，其中绝大部分必要的技术已经登陆道路车辆，用以提高车辆的安全性，并减少事故可能产生的成本。这些配备包括摄像头、传感器和计算机，可以实现自动制动，避免与其他车辆发生碰撞；电子稳定控制系统，可以降低车辆发生侧翻或弯折的风险；盲点检测系统；车道偏离预警系统，可以在车辆偏离车道时发出警告；及胎压监测系统，可以减少因爆胎而发生事故的可能性。

毫无疑问，美国联邦和各州政府肯定会在自动驾驶汽车的发展中发挥重要作用。比如，美国国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）就曾提出，2017年8月以后，所有新重型卡车均应配备稳定控制系统。NHTSA援引一项研究报道的数据称，由于失去控制，全美7类和8类卡车每年造成的死亡和受伤人数分别高达300人和2700人。

此外，奥巴马政府也在今年1月提出开展一项自动驾驶汽车发展项目，从而减少人为错误，挽救生命，并解决联邦与地方法规混杂的问题。据了解，该项目为期10年，项目经费为40亿美元。

目前，美国多个州已经开始进行自动汽车的实时公路测试。其中，密歇根州的一个项目就将在I-69、I-94和I-696州际公路围成的三角地带进行公路测试。

另一个测试项目则主要依靠Mcity进行。据了解，Mcity位于美国密歇根大学北校区的交通运输转型中心，是一座占地32英亩的测试场。Mcity去年夏天正式开放，这座测试场经过专门设计，配备了多种不同的路况、转弯、隧道、信号系统和照明水平，能在可控的情况下，测试互联自动汽车的种种功能。

此外，目前部分非公路设备厂商正在与客户和供应商合作，测试验证车辆的精确度、速度和效率。

“列队行驶”现已成为可能

虽然可行，但全自动汽车目前仍处于研发阶段。不过，部分专家认为，全自动技术中的“列队行驶”功能现已成为可能。具体来说，采用“队列”功能的车队可以利用空气动力“拖曳效应”，最高节省10%的燃油，而且还能提高安全性。

在“列队行驶”模式下，每辆卡车都配备了高级巡航控制系统。队列最前方的卡车将控制整个车队的制动和加速，而后方的卡车则利用巡航控制功能，与前车保持一定车距。目前，威伯科(WABCO)公司就可以提供这种技术。

很显然，要实现未来大幅降低公路死亡和受伤人数的目标，肯定离不开当下的自动驾驶商用车辆的推广。虽然近几年来伤亡数字已经呈下降态势，但全美每年仍有33000人因交通事故而丧生。

理论上讲，如果车辆发生伤亡事故的概率更低，相应的保险成本也将有所下降。在评估引进安全技术的总成本时，工业和商业车队及运营商肯定也会将保险费用考虑在内。

很显然，“功能套装”的价格也会影响车队引进新功能的决定。不过，因事故发生率下降而节省的支出和规模经济的效益，都可以抵消这部分成本。

由于北美地区关于自动汽车的讨论日益升温，威伯科公司顺势推出了一个自动驾驶功能套装，其中包括空气盘式制动器，以及碰撞缓解与稳定控制系统。为了进一步巩固自己制动领导者的地位，威伯科在今年早些时候收购了MICO公司。MICO公司是一家全球领先供应商，这家公司生产的液压元件以及控制与制动系统，广泛应用于农业、建筑、采矿等领域的非公路设备中。威伯科的收购是为了更好地打入北美的非公路设备市场，并继续扩大公司在农业、建筑、采矿等领域的技术研发，尤其是有关制动系统的研发，因为制动系统是自动驾驶技术的关键组成。

不管是现在还是未来，威伯科对车辆安全性的追求始终如一：

• 目前的目标：碰撞缓解/避免、驾驶员表现监控及指导

• 2020年目标：事故预防

• 2025年目标：自动驾驶、360°全方位安全系统。

碰撞缓解系统的全面发展

如今，碰撞缓解系统（CMS）在轻型车上的应用日益普及，现在已经足够成熟，可推广至重载车辆。碰撞缓解系统的关键是在雷达传感器“看到”前方出现移动、停止或静止的车辆时，如果驾驶员未能采取适当行动，则自动让车辆减速或停止。

目前，OnGuardACTIVE是威伯科公司最为先进的碰撞缓解系统。该系统的环境识别速度比普通驾驶员快30%。而且，与普通的摄像头系统不同，OnGuardACTIVE并不会受到驾驶条件的影响，在暴风雪、暴雨、浓雾、阳光眩目及深夜等环境下都可以正常工作。此外，系统还可以通过声音、视觉和触感等多种途径向驾驶员发出警告。

我们分析了超过200个采用OnGuard系统的车队，结果显示，这些车队在超过450亿英里的累计里程中，追尾事故发生率降低了87%，事故成本降低了89％。此外，根据我们的计算，OnGuard系统的投资回报期最多为两年。

与其他商用车辆供应商一样，我们公司也开发了稳定控制和车道偏离等系统，而且均能兼容自动驾驶系统。此外，我们还为加州的驾驶性能管理解决方案公司Smart Drive Systems投资2000万美元。这家公司可通过视频分析、预测分析和个性化性能系统，协助车队提升驾驶技巧、降低运营成本，并缩短投资回报期。

当然，工业和商业车辆的整体前景将决定我们的技术组合的潜在市场。未来，成本、安全、责任划分等问题将继续影响车队对新技术的接纳和应用，但其中哪些车辆将成为自动驾驶汽车尚不得而知。

本文作者为美国威伯科公司总裁Jon Morrison，属于《SAE非公路工程杂志》2016年6月刊年度总监观点系列报道的一部分。

作者：Jon Morrison
来源：SAE《非公路工程》杂志
翻译：SAE 中国办公室

Autonomous operations for heavy-duty trucks are coming down the road

Although some commercial vehicle fleets and owners remain skeptical about autonomous driving and the implications for their big rigs traveling down the highway, the fact is that much of the technology is already available to make it a real possibility. Some estimates say the technology could be ready for commercial application by the 2025 time period, or perhaps sooner.

Indeed, some off-road industrial autonomous vehicles already are at work, and actually have been since the 1990s, specifically in the mining and agricultural markets. Autonomous and semi-autonomous agricultural vehicles, for example, are fairly common these days out in the field where harvesters are electronically tethered to carriers for faster and easier loading. GPS technology also is used extensively in agricultural markets to identify and validate locations for seeding, pesticide control, and more.

For on-highway applications, much of the necessary technology already is being implemented to make vehicles safer, and to reduce costs associated with collisions. The technologies include cameras, sensors and computers that power autonomous braking to help avoid collisions with other vehicles; electronic stability control systems to mitigate rollovers and jackknifing; blind spot detection; systems that warn when a vehicle strays from its lane; and tire pressure monitoring devices designed to eliminate crippling blowouts and prevent accidents.

Federal and state regulations, of course, also will play a key role as autonomous vehicle development moves forward. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), for example, proposed that all new heavy-duty trucks come equipped with stability control starting in August 2017. NHTSA cites a study showing that Class 7 and 8 trucks account for more than 300 deaths and 2700 injuries annually due to loss-of-control accidents.

Meanwhile, in January the Obama Administration proposed a $4-billion, 10-year program to develop autonomous vehicles with a goal of reducing human errors, saving lives, and superseding a mishmash of state and local regulations.

Several states, however, already are gearing up for real-time highway testing of autonomous vehicles. One Michigan project includes a road-test triangle consisting of Interstate highways I-69, I-94 and I-696.

Another initiative focuses on Mcity, a 32-acre test facility operated by the University of Michigan Transformation Center on U-M’s North Campus. Opened last summer, Mcity is designed to test—under controlled situations—connected and autonomous vehicles, and features widely varying road conditions, roundabouts, tunnels, signals, lighting and much more.

Some off-highway manufacturers are collaborating with customers and suppliers to test and validate the accuracy, speed and efficiency of their vehicles.

Platooning now feasible

While workable, fully autonomous vehicles remain in development. One function—platooning—is now feasible, say some experts. In this case the enticement is fuel savings of up to 10% produced by aerodynamic “drafting,” with safety also a prime factor.

In platooning, each truck is equipped with advanced cruise control. The front truck controls the brakes and acceleration for the entire convoy, and the cruise control keeps those following at a precise distance from each other. This is another technology in which WABCO is able to actively participate.

Clearly the prospect of vastly reducing highway deaths and injuries lies behind the current push to automate commercial vehicle operation. Although declining in recent years, accidents still claim 33,000 lives annually in the U.S.

In theory, safer vehicles with fewer deaths and injuries should logically reduce insurance costs. That’s something industrial and commercial vehicle fleets and operators are considering in evaluating the overall cost of adding safety-related technology.

Paying at the checkout for a “basket” full of technology is another obvious concern of industrial and commercial fleets and owner-operators. However, these costs can be offset by accident-reducing savings and by economies of scale as volume climbs.

As the discussion on automated vehicles has accelerated in North America, WABCO’s suite of technologies, including air disc brakes, collision mitigation and stability control systems, are all platforms for autonomous driving. Furthering its leadership in braking, WABCO earlier this year acquired MICO Inc., a global market leader in hydraulic components, controls and brake systems for off-highway vehicles in agriculture, construction, mining and similar industries. This was done to gain greater access to the off-highway market in North America, as well as continue expanding our technology developments in these growth markets, especially as they relate to braking, a key component in autonomous driving.

WABCO has a vision for vehicle safety that takes into account the present and the future:

• Today: collision mitigation/avoidance; driver performance monitoring and coaching

• 2020: accident prevention

• 2025: autonomous driving; safety 360°.

Collision mitigation fully developed

Collision mitigation systems (CMS) are now gaining popularity in light vehicles and have been fully developed for heavy-duty vehicles. The key is radar sensors capable of slowing and/or totally stopping a vehicle that “sees” moving, stopping or stationary vehicles ahead and automatically brakes should the driver fail to take appropriate action.

At WABCO, we call the most advanced version of our CMS OnGuardACTIVE. It recognizes conditions 30% faster than a typical driver and is impervious to low visibility driving conditions such as whiteouts, heavy rain, dense fog, blinding sunshine and the dark of night—conditions where camera-based systems may be impaired. Moreover, it alerts drivers with acoustic, visual and haptic (sense of touch) warnings.

Our research shows that OnGuard in more than 200 fleets has provided up to an 87% reduction in rear-end collisions collectively over 45 billion miles and an 89% reduction in accident costs. Furthermore, we calculate the ROI for OnGuard is two years or less.

Like other commercial vehicle suppliers, we have developed stability control and lane-departure technology as well, both compatible with the looming era of autonomous operation. We also invested $20 million in Smart Drive Systems, a California-based driving performance management solutions innovator that uses video analysis, predictive analytics and a personalized performance program to help fleets and carriers improve skills, lower operating costs and deliver significant ROI.

Naturally, the overall outlook for industrial and commercial vehicles will determine the potential market for our portfolio of technologies. With issues of cost, safety and liability continuing to be key drivers for their acceptance and adoption, how many of those may be autonomous vehicles is yet to be determined.

Jon Morrison, President of WABCO Americas, wrote this article for Off-Highway Engineering as part of the annual Executive Viewpoints series appearing in the June 2016 issue.

Author: Jon Morrison
Source: SAE Off-Highway Engineering Magazine