IHS Automotive 的汽车分析师表示，更多的车辆发布和更短的产品周期正在重塑全球汽车格局，许多供应商难以跟上产品更新换代的速度。

2016年至2018年，各大整车厂将在全球市场共计推出434辆新车，比过去三年的车型发布总和多出约100辆。新车型数量的剧增将给工程师、工具制造、物流和基础设施带来巨大压力。在新车发布速度大幅提升的同时，产品周期也在缩短。

IHS Automotive公司在密歇根的Southfield举行了2015年秋季新闻发布会，主题是全球汽车市场研究与分析，总经理Michael Robinet表示，“以前，一个车辆的开发周期要七、八年的时间。现在是五年完成一个周期。”

竞争问题、法规要求、以及消费者需求的提升，是几乎所有新发布的乘用车开发周期缩短到五年的主要原因，而与此同时，每两到三年还会有一次小更新和周期中的改进。

对其他部件的改进来说，周期甚至更短，如外饰灯，前、后保险杠装饰板，以及车载电子元件等。

“这些改进可以实现快速集成。大多数车载软件代码几乎每年都在重写，”Robinet表示，“这也改变了车辆发布和测试的格局。”

Robinet也提到，汽车产业内各利益相关方也在应对动力总成周期大幅缩短的问题，以前一般是10年一个周期，现在缩短了几年的时间。

驱动产品周期缩短的是政府法规。许多法规规定，需要采用新型发动机逐步替代老发动机，因为旧款不支持燃油节约技术，比如可变气门正时技术、随选排量技术、或者启停系统等。

但是，供应商却很难跟上产品快速更新的步伐。

“很多二、三级供应商面临着巨大的挑战，无法跟上产品更新的速度，”Robinet表示，“问题是，随着产品更迭的速度加快，全球化水平也在不断提升。因此，对于这些二、三级，甚至很多一级供应商来说，与产品实现同步更新是非常有挑战性的。”

此外，全球经济发展更具波动性，其变化常常快于产品的更新速度。目前，巴西和俄罗斯正面临严重衰退，中国的轻型车辆销售也十分疲软，已经经历了三个月份的负增长。
 

IHS Automotive的高级首席经济学家Charles Chesbrough表示，“巴西的经济衰退给菲亚特克莱斯勒带来了巨大冲击，因为巴西市场是其重点发展市场。而欧洲的汽车制造商则备受俄罗斯经济下行的冲击。而在中国，相比于其他汽车制造商，经济增长放缓给大众和通用带来了更为严重的影响。”
 

目前，欧洲、北美、日本和韩国市场的汽车销量正在反弹。

“自2009年世界经济衰退以来，全球汽车销售格局发生了剧变，新兴市场成为购买主力，” Chesbrough表示。“但在近几年，格局有所逆转，大多数成熟市场已开始复苏，现在也已实现较温和的正增长。”

他也表示，北美、澳大利亚、新西兰、西欧、日本和韩国的2015年汽车销量总和最多可达4290万辆，预计2020年可达4350万辆。

对于产品的研发阶段来说，来自全球各汽车市场的信息反馈是非常重要的；但对于实现技术更新而言，成熟市场人才的专业知识不可或缺。

“随着我们市场正在朝全球化道路发展，您需要拥有足够的工程知识储备，以顺应不断加快的产品更新的速度。” Chesbrough表示。

作者：Kami Buchholz

来源：SAE《汽车工程杂志》

翻译：SAE上海办公室

Suppliers struggling to keep pace with faster product cycles, says IHS

More vehicle launches and faster product cycles are re-shaping the global vehicle landscape, and many suppliers are struggling to keep pace, according to IHS Automotive analysts.

From 2016 through 2018, OEMs will production launch a combined 434 vehicles into global markets. That's nearly 100 more launches than the previous three years’ total, and the dramatically increased activity puts pressure on engineers, tooling, logistics, and the infrastructure. This frenzied pace also occurs amid a shift to shorter product cycles. 

“The days of seven- and eight-year vehicle cycles are completely gone. Now it’s a five-year cadence,” Michael Robinet, Managing Director of IHS Automotive, said during the global research and analysis firm’s 2015 fall media briefing at its Southfield, MI offices.

Competitive issues, legislation requirements, and consumer demand are driving the five-year cycle for just about every all-new passenger vehicle, while moderate refresh/mid-cycle enhancements are now occurring every two to three years.

The cycle time is even faster for other modifications that commonly involve exterior lighting, front and rear fascia trim as well as the vehicle cabin’s electronic content.

“We’re integrating all this new content on-the-fly. Most of the software on vehicles is being re-written virtually every year,” said Robinet, “This changes the dynamic of how we launch vehicles and how we test them.”

Industry players are also dealing with a significantly shortened powertrain cycle, going from a typical 10-year span to a single-digit cycle, according to Robinet.

Driving that shorter product cycle are government regulations. In many cases, new engines are needed to phase-out older powerplants that are unable to accommodate fuel-saving technologies, such as variable valve timing, displacement on demand, or a stop/start system.

But working under increasingly accelerated product cycle cadence is proving difficult for the supply base.

“A lot of Tier 2 and Tier 3 suppliers are having tremendous issues keeping up,” said Robinet, “The problem with that is as this cadence gets faster, it also gets more global. And as it gets more global, these Tier 2, Tier 3, and even some Tier 1 suppliers are finding the speed of cadence very challenging.”

Global economies frequently fluctuate and usually at a faster pace than product cycles. Today, Brazil and Russia are in severe recessions, and China is experiencing a softening in its light-duty vehicle sales, including three months of negative growth.

According to Charles Chesbrough, IHS Automotive’s Senior Principal Economist, “FCA has been hurt tremendously from the downturn in Brazil because they’re heavily focused on that market. The European manufacturers are much more impacted by the downturn in Russia. And VW and GM could be impacted more than other automakers by the slight downturn in China.”

Europe, North America, Japan, and Korea are on a sales rebound.

“The source of sales in the world has changed dramatically since the 2009 global recession when the emerging markets were the industry’s saving grace," Chesbrough noted. "But in recent years we’ve seen the flip-flop, and most of the mature markets have started to make their comeback and are now poised for very modest but positive growth.”

He said combined vehicle sales in North America, Australia, New Zealand, Western Europe, Japan and Korea for 2015 will top 42.9 million units with 43.5 million units projected by 2020. 

Input from multiple global markets is important to the product development process, but the expertise vested with mature market talent is crucial to accomplishing technology innovations.

“Because we’re moving toward globalized platforms, you really need the knowledge base that a mature market has in terms of the engineering, and that’s important with the move toward shorter product cycle times,” said Chesbrough.

Author: Kami Buchholz
Source: SAE Automotive Enginneering Magazine