由于中国经济放缓，整车厂和一级供应商将在近期迎来很多变化。上月，在中国重庆举行的2016年全球汽车论坛（Global Automotive Forum）期间，大会专家预测，中国汽车行业将迎来年增长率放缓的“新常态”，而这可能会给汽车厂商和供应商带来沉重打击。

“中国的经济增长正下降至较低水平，增长在0-5％与15-20％时的管理有所不同。”亚洲麦格纳国际（Asia Magna International）执行副总裁Frank O'Brien表示，“低速增长会导致更加激烈的竞争、更加活跃的收购及更多的公司破产。如今，中国将面临很多与过去北美和欧洲市场很类似的挑战。”

即使在经济放缓的新常态之下，中国的国内生产总值（GDP）预计仍将高于全球绝大多数地区。我们可以看到，中国豪车市场的表现依旧强劲。

“作为世界第二大经济体，中国6-7％的增长速度还是不错的。”戴姆勒（Daimler）负责大中华区的管理董事会成员Hubertus Troska表示，“梅赛德斯-奔驰（Mercedes Benz）在中国的销量同比增长35％，超过美国市场。所有在中国市场售出的车辆中，约三分之二均产于中国。”

许多全球一级供应商非常关注中国未来的增长。

“中国是我们全球最大的市场。”法雷奥中国区总裁Edouard de Pirey表示，“去年，中国汽车制造商贡献了20%的汽车销量，而中国市场则占我们订单总数的40%。”

长期以来，中国厂商一直视“出口”为未来的主要增长点，但这些厂商所做的出口尝试却并不太成功。分散的当地市场正是阻碍中国厂商实现全球扩张的原因之一。

“有消息称中国汽车出口将达到中国汽车总销量的10%。”亚洲智能汽车（Intelligence Automotive Asia）总经理(Managing Director)Ashvin Chotai表示，“其实这还说不准。中国的汽车出口面临一个问题，那就是缺少一个真正的领军品牌。到2020年，中国的汽车出口量很难实现300万辆，可能更接近150万辆左右。”

尽管经济的快速增长正在放缓，但中央规划者预计中国的汽车行业将实现稳健增长，特别是所谓的新能源汽车领域，即使用电池和氢燃料等替代能源的汽车。根据2016年结束的“十二五规划”，中国的汽车产量将在2020年达到2800万到3000万辆。然而，经济放缓可能会阻碍国内的汽车销售，中国政府也有可能因难以承受债务负担，而减少财政支持。

“中国已经认识到，汽车行业发展的关键并不在于‘五年规划’，而是市场。”Chotai表示，“中国政府计划在2020年前，保证6.5%的年均GDP增长。在我看来，这种经济增长很难实现，其中一个很大的问题就是中国的债务越来越多，这将制约GDP的增长，绝对会起阻碍作用。”

中央规划已经让很多公司非常头疼。中国的市场非常分散，汽车厂商数不胜数，供应商很难预测正确这些公司的需求。由于很难预测需求，以及为了应对中央规划目标，很多供应商都会进入过度生产的状况。

“我们正在与产能过剩做斗争。”动力系统元件供应商Asimco副总裁Wilson Ni表示，“当时我们的产能被要求需要达到能为300万辆重卡配套的量级，但去年的重卡产量总共才55万辆。”

目前，很多生产设施仍处于从建设期向全面运转期过渡的阶段。与此同时，经济放缓可能会束缚需求的增长，但产量仍在不断扩大。

麦格纳的O'Brien表示，“产能过剩是一个巨大的问题，情况只会变得更糟。”

来自GAF的嘉宾表示，政府必须为产能过剩承担部分负责，这是因为中国政府曾提供补贴，帮助一部分公司继续维持生产。但是，政府所扮演的“大家长”角色也将助长公司的自满情绪、扼杀创新精神。

“国有企业的效率一直很低下，他们需要改变。”清华大学法学院讲座教授高西庆和郑裕彤表示，“如果国有企业一直活在政府的保护之下，不去追求创新，那就意味着我们向国际竞争者敞开了大门。”

随着中国经济增长放缓到现在所谓的“新常态”，国内的汽车销售将出现大幅波动。这让很多公司很难识别业务方向，并做出相应战略规划。

“增长一直很不稳定，未来仍将是这样。”大陆中国CEO Ralf Cramer表示，“去年，汽车行业曾在一个月内下跌34％，又在同年另一个月中反弹78％。”

一些大会发言人表示，未来几年内，中国的汽车市场将出现很多收购并购。还有一些专家认为，质量问题一直是阻碍中国汽车出口的一大问题。因此，质量也将在未来的汽车销售中发挥关键作用。

“我们认为一些中国厂商可能会突出重围，另外一些则可能会失败。”de Pirey表示，“而提高汽车质量是取得成功的关键。”

作者：Terry Costlow
来源：SAE《汽车工程》杂志
翻译：SAE中国办公室

OEMs and Tier 1s prepare for China uncertainty, disruptions

As headwinds buffet China's economy, automotive OEMs and Tier 1s are expecting many changes in the near term. At the recent Global Automotive Forum in Chongqing, experts predicted that slower annual growth is “the new normal” for the region’s auto industry and may cause some major disruptions.

“China’s growth is coming down to lower levels, it’s different managing for 0-5% growth than for 15-20%,” said Frank O'Brien, Executive Vice President, Asia MagnaInternational. “Characteristics of a slow growth era are increased competition, more acquisitions and more bankruptcies. Many of the challenges now will be more similar to what’s been seen in North America and Europe.”

Even in the new normal, China’s gross domestic product is expected to grow at significantly higher rates than most regions. Segments like luxury cars remain quite strong.

“A 6-7% growth rate from the second biggest economy is good,” said Hubertus Troska, the Board of Management Member at Daimler who’s responsible for Greater China. “Mercedes Benz sales grew by 35% here, surpassing the U.S. market. Two thirds of the cars solid in China are made in China.”

Many global Tier 1s are focusing on China for future growth.

“China is our first country worldwide,” said Edouard de Pirey, President of ValeoChina. “Chinese car manufacturers represented 20% of sales last year but they’re 40% of our orders.”

Chinese OEMs have long discussed exports as a major growth opportunity, but those efforts have largely failed. The fragmented local market is one of the factors that’s prevented China’s automakers from expanding globally.

“There’s talk about China reaching an export level of 10%,” said Ashvin Chotai, Managing Director, Intelligence Automotive Asia. “That’s still a question. One problem with exports is that no leading brand is the Chinese National Champion. It will be difficult to get to 3 million units by 2020, it will probably be closer to 1.5 or two million.”

While China’s rapid economic growth is slowing, central planners expect solid growth in the automotive industry, particularly so-called New Energy Vehicles that use alternative power such as batteries and hydrogen. The Five Year Plan completed in 2016 predicts that auto production will hit 28-30 million by 2020. However, a slowing economy may hamper domestic sales and government support could diminish due to debt loads.

“China has recognized that the auto industry is not drive by the five-year plan, it’s driven by markets,” Chotai said. “The government is planning on 6.5 % GDP growth through 2020. In my opinion, that will be hard to do. One big concern is the growth of the national debt. That may put a cap on GDP growth. It’s certainly a headwind.”

Central planning has caused headaches for some companies. China’s market is very fragmented, with many OEMs, so suppliers find it difficult to predict their demands. This complexity, combined with the pressure of preparing to meet central plan goals, led to overbuilding by many suppliers.

“We’re struggling with overcapacity,” said Wilson Ni, Vice President at Asimco, a powertrain components supplier. “We were asked to build up capacity for three million trucks, but last your only 550,000 were produced.

Many production facilities are still moving from construction to full operation. At the same time, the slowing economy may hamper demand while output is still growing.

“Excess capacity is a huge problem that will only get worse,” Magna's O'Brien said.

Some of this overcapacity can be attributed to the role of the government. Subsidies have helped some companies keep their production from failing. The government’s ownership role has fostered complacency and stifled innovation, according to a plenary speaker at GAF.

“The state-owned enterprises have been inefficient, they need to change,” said Gao Xiqing, Cheng Yu-tung, Chair Professor, Tsinghua University School of Law. “If state-owned enterprises are protected and don’t innovate, we’re opening the door for international competitors.”

As the Chinese economy slows into what’s often called the new normal, vehicle sales are fluctuating wildly. That’s making it tough for companies to discern business direction and make strategic plans.

“Growth has been very volatile, and that will continue,” said Ralf Cramer, CEO ofContinental China. “Last year the auto industry lost 34% in one month and jumped back 78% in a month later in the year.”

There may be some consolidation in the next few years, some GAF speakers said. Many noted that quality has been an issue that slowed exports, so it will play a key role in future sales.

“We think some Chinese OEMs will win, some will disappear,” de Pirey said. “The winners will succeed by improving the quality of their cars.”

Author: Terry Costlow
Source: SAE Automotive Engineering Magazine